Freakonomics vs. The Tipping Point

I read Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner about a month ago. Basically, the authors (or really Levitt, the economist) use economics to discover how normal day-to-day things work, challenging conventional wisdom. It was a short read and very convincing. If you haven't read it, definitely check it out.

On the dustjacket of Freakonomics was an endorsement by Malcolm Gladwell, the New Yorker columnist and author of Blink and The Tipping Point:

"Prepare to be dazzled."

Serious praise. Anyway, I'd never read any of Gladwell's books when I saw this, but I had read an excellent interview with him by Bill Simmons of ESPN.com. So it was about time that I gave it a shot. I went on to read The Tipping Point.

Both TP and Freco touch on a variety of issues and problems, but they also each have a chapter devoted to understanding the same phenomenon: the huge drop in crime in the early 1990s. And despite Gladwell's glowing praise of Freakonomics, it appears that the two were in enormous disagreement.

Gladwell focuses on New York City, claiming that the precipitous drop in crime was due, in large part, to a revolutionary policing technique borne out of something called the "Broken Windows Theory". The theory got its name from this example from an Atlantic Monthly article by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling:

"Consider a building with a few broken windows. If the windows are not repaired, the tendency is for vandals to break a few more windows. Eventually, they may even break into the building, and if it's unoccupied, perhaps become squatters or light fires inside."

The idea is that problems should be fixed when they're small to prevent them from snow-balling until they're unmanageable. In a nutshell, Gladwell claims that New York's crime problem dropped in large part because of zero tolerance policies on things like graffiti and fare-jumping. Once criminals realized that their small actions weren't going unpunished, they were less likely to commit more heinous offenses.

In Freco, Levitt studied crime rates across the United States in trying to understand the nationwide fall in crime. He decided that a number of theories were not very helpful in accounting for the enormous drop. He argued that NYC's Broken Windows theory wasn't very significant, as it was only used in NYC, which experienced a similar drop in crime to other large cities across the US . In his mind, the missing link (as much as 40%) of the crime drop is the legalization of abortion approximately 18 years earlier. His claim is that legalized, safe, and inexpensive abortion meant that fewer of the children most prone to violent crime were being born. He says that this is further reinforced by the fact that states legalizing abortion earlier saw their crime rates drop earlier as well, and in the same time frame.

Now, how could Gladwell so enthusiastically praise Freco when it appeared to contradict his precious Broken Windows Theory?

For his answer, read his blog.

I still think Levitt's theory is more interesting/effective when explaining the drop in crime. But maybe it's because Gladwell looks like a fucking loser.

You Stole My 'Booyah'. Prepare to Die.

I hate Stuart Scott and his evil discolored eye. I really can't stand the guy. However, I have never ever thought that stalking and/or threatening him would do me much good. I just hope that natural disaster or scandal befalls him so I don't have to endure more "street" Sportscenter episodes. Can't we just pretend for a second that some people don't speak jive when they're talking about sports?

But I digress.

The point is that, according to Scott's Shots, some wacko named Evan Chaggaris threatened various ESPN personalities over several months in 2004 and 2005. His explanation for his behavior follows:

The defendant stated that the reason he was angry with ESPN was because he is a telemarketer and part of his sales pitch dealt with sports issues. The defendant believed that ESPN had his work phone tapped and that ESPN was stealing his sales pitch that he would give to potential clients.

I can see how he might think that. I've complained to priests that God steals all my best ideas. You remember that solar eclipse a couple years ago? Well, I thought of that in 1989.

However, I will admit that Chaggaris' response was a bit over the top. He sent over two dozen letters and left "at least six" voice messages, most of them violent and obscene. Here's a few examples:

“Tell [Sportscaster A] That I’ll Be Up There To Take His A** Out - That’s My Resolution For 2005 . . . I Will Kill This Cockroach, Count On It - And Wait There Until The Job Is Done . . . Trust Me, He’s Going Down.”

“I’ll Move Up To Bristol Or Surrounding Areas [and] Hunt [Sportscaster A] Down Like An Animal And Make It My Goal To Put Him Out, So He’ll Never Appear On Your Show Again.”

“Fire [Sportscaster A] Or I Swear On My Late Mother And Father’s Lives, I’m Gonna Kill This Son Of A Bitch.”

Then it really gets weird:

• “[Sportscaster A] is Going To Get Put In The Hospital, Anyway. Every Day That Heb Goes On [the air is] Another Time That I Ratchet Up The Courage To Beat The Hell Out Of Him” . . . “I’m Going to Put His A** Out Plan and Simple So He Never Works Again, Plain and Simple.”
• “If I See [Sportscaster A] Again, Hitler Kills The Jews, I’ll Pull A Me[in] Kampf, And Take Out This Motherf***er! This A**hole Wants To Mess Around, I’ll Kill [Sportscaster A]!”

Didn't see that Hitler part coming, did you?

Sometimes there's something satisfying about the insane. Or perhaps 'comforting' is the better word. I'm comforted by knowing that I can recognize crazy when I see it, and I think that helps me avoid it myself.

Also, Scott's Shots points out that this may not be the best time for ESPN's new marketing campaign for ESPN Mobile. In case you haven't seen them, they feature an overzealous ESPN stalker hanging around in the lots waiting to accost show anchors.

Despite the pall of Chaggaris hanging over them, I like the ads. Crazy is funny. Get over it.

Casserly is Bushwacked

Charley Casserly, GM of the Houston Texans, has resigned. If you don't remember, he's the poor bastard who had to go on TV and explain why he wanted to doom his team to another decade of squalor (i.e. drafting Van Helsing fan Super Mario Williams first overall instead of Reginald Sawyer Bush or hometown hero Vincent Youngblood).

He says he's leaving in order to pursue the position of Vice President of Football Operations. Obviously, there's more to it than that. It sounds to me like he was forced out by either Gary Kubiak's uselessness or by his own mismanagement of the Draft. Regardless, it's odd timing.

In the end, it was probably the right decision, no matter who made it: get Chuck the fuck out of Dodge well before the season starts.

What's sad is that we're all going to miss the controlled riots in Reliant Stadium on opening day. We won't be able to watch in horror as the mobs slowly penetrate the defenses of the owner's box and proceed to kill and maim Casserly, towing his dismembered torso around the field behind a golden chariot steered by Mayor Bill White.

Face Shield

I've broken three pairs of RayBans now, and I've lost God knows how many Oakleys and other retarded eyewear. I actually liked some of those sunglasses, but it's getting hard to keep up with my expensive habit of buying and then destroying them. Instead of going in for a rectal cleansing at Sunglass Hut, I decided to do the hipster/bum thing and look for a very cheap pair or two.

I went to vintage stores, drug stores, and even sunglasses stores, trying to see what I could find. Let me now remind you that my head is the size of a heavy medicine ball, and I have trouble wrapping most pairs around it. So not only am I an over-sized man in general, but I have to suffer with the pain of clerks at Sunglass Hut relegating me to the Andre the Giant rack which features lots of plywood and plexi-glass. "Why don't we give this welding mask a try?"

Anyway, I ended up with two pairs (or is it 'two pair', as in poker?): boring fake aviators with mirrored lenses that are still too small and a pair of enormous fake aviators with tortoise-colored plastic rims. Apparently I was meant to be a pilot.

Total cost: $19. Lack of satisfaction: priceless.

The search continues. I challenge anyone to recommend a good brand of sunglasses that fit big heads and aren't BlueBlockers.

The News from Micronesia

And now for the Woodpile's biweekly update on Micronesia, the world's friendliest speck of dirt in the big puddle we call the Pacific Ocean.

According to the Pacific Daily News (which barely lost the 2005 Vague Award for News Daily to the Southern Hemisphere Gazette) the upright and beloved Continental Micronesia has furloughed 50 workers due to the termination of an agreement with the evil Northwest Airlines of Guam.

The furloughs are expected to begin next week and will affect Continental employees who work at ticket counters and as baggage handlers, as well as gate and ramp personnel for Northwest flights.

I think this is a fantastic idea. I can print my own ticket, handle my own baggage, and probably figure out the gate and ramp situation myself. It's a ramp. It's probably the simplest machine in the world. Step one: find flat surface. Step two: tilt it. Done. It doesn't even approach the complexity of stairs.

One of the reasons behind all of this is that jet fuel prices are through the roof, coming in at $85 a barrel. However

Higher fuel costs have not threatened jobs at Continental, which provides $90 million in annual payroll to its 1,450 Guam employees, Wally Dias, staff vice president for sales and promotions for Continental, said.

Again with Guam. Who cares about Guam? Fascists. We're talking Micronesia, here. 50 people have been furloughed. What are they supposed to do?

Actually, now that I think of it, a furlough in Micronesia sounds suspiciously like an unpaid vacation.

Amsack

This weekend I'm traveling up to Princeton, NJ, for a black tie event at my old eating club. By the way, I'm 24 years old.

Anyway, as I can't afford a car and Greyhound doesn't offer a reasonable route from Washington to the Trenton area, I decided to take the luxurious option of rail travel on Amtrak. Little did I know how much this 2-and-a-half-hour-each-way-luxury would cost me: over $130. And if I didn't happen to keep the same schedule as a meth addict thus allowing me to take the "super low" web fares, it would probably have cost me over $190.

When did it become so goddamn expensive to get on a train? They're the same trains. They're the same tracks. They're the same surly asshole ticket takers.

Honestly, when I saw the price, I started thinking about buying a car. Maybe an SUV. Something huge with big bull bars on the front so that when I drive into the glass lobby of Amtrak headquarters and start spraying the hallways with buckshot and pipe bombs, they'll really know I mean business.

And maybe they'll spare me a rail pass or two. Signed in blood.

Number 5

Orders of Reggie Bush jerseys have not been shipped as it is still unclear what number the Saints' first round draft choice will wear (on the product page on Reebok's site the jersey bears number 1.... ugh). NFL Bush has petitioned the NFL's competition committee to ask that he be able to wear the number 5, the number he wore at USC last year. At this time, only quarterbacks and kickers can wear that number. As of now, these are the numbers and corresponding positions for NFL play:

1-9 Quarterbacks and Kickers
10-19 Quarterbacks, Receivers, and Kickers
20-49 Running Backs and Defensive Backs
50-59 Centers and Linebackers
60-79 Defensive Linemen and Offensive Linemen
80-89 Receivers and Tight Ends
90-99 Defensive Linemen and Linebackers

These recently changed in 2004 when receivers were given the option of choosing numbers in the 10-19 range. Keyshawn Johnson was allowed to do it in 1996 because the Jets roster had more than 10 receivers (this precedent won't help Bush, as I'm fairly certain that the Saints don't have 30 running backs on the roster). Now 30 receivers wear numbers in the teens: Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, and Plaxico Burress among them.

The NFL maintains that the numbering system makes it easier for officials, and I seriously doubt that they'll bend just so the Saints' darling can wear his favorite number. It would set a poor precedent.

Now, the Saints don't have any availabilities in the 20s, so Bush would be forced to wear 30-49, assuming that the rule isn't changed. Bush should avoid Sayers' 40, Payton's 34, and definitely should stay away from Shaun Alexander's awful 37.

Here's my idea:

the word "Five"


Okay, that was retarded. But if you want me to throw out a number, how about 33. Yeah, I know it's not that cool, but it's all we've got.

Or the NFL can just give him 5 because he's black Jesus and goddamnit he deserves it.

Tribute to Young Chuck Norris

Young Chuck Norris.