Freakonomics vs. The Tipping Point

I read Freakonomics by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner about a month ago. Basically, the authors (or really Levitt, the economist) use economics to discover how normal day-to-day things work, challenging conventional wisdom. It was a short read and very convincing. If you haven't read it, definitely check it out.

On the dustjacket of Freakonomics was an endorsement by Malcolm Gladwell, the New Yorker columnist and author of Blink and The Tipping Point:

"Prepare to be dazzled."

Serious praise. Anyway, I'd never read any of Gladwell's books when I saw this, but I had read an excellent interview with him by Bill Simmons of ESPN.com. So it was about time that I gave it a shot. I went on to read The Tipping Point.

Both TP and Freco touch on a variety of issues and problems, but they also each have a chapter devoted to understanding the same phenomenon: the huge drop in crime in the early 1990s. And despite Gladwell's glowing praise of Freakonomics, it appears that the two were in enormous disagreement.

Gladwell focuses on New York City, claiming that the precipitous drop in crime was due, in large part, to a revolutionary policing technique borne out of something called the "Broken Windows Theory". The theory got its name from this example from an Atlantic Monthly article by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling:

"Consider a building with a few broken windows. If the windows are not repaired, the tendency is for vandals to break a few more windows. Eventually, they may even break into the building, and if it's unoccupied, perhaps become squatters or light fires inside."

The idea is that problems should be fixed when they're small to prevent them from snow-balling until they're unmanageable. In a nutshell, Gladwell claims that New York's crime problem dropped in large part because of zero tolerance policies on things like graffiti and fare-jumping. Once criminals realized that their small actions weren't going unpunished, they were less likely to commit more heinous offenses.

In Freco, Levitt studied crime rates across the United States in trying to understand the nationwide fall in crime. He decided that a number of theories were not very helpful in accounting for the enormous drop. He argued that NYC's Broken Windows theory wasn't very significant, as it was only used in NYC, which experienced a similar drop in crime to other large cities across the US . In his mind, the missing link (as much as 40%) of the crime drop is the legalization of abortion approximately 18 years earlier. His claim is that legalized, safe, and inexpensive abortion meant that fewer of the children most prone to violent crime were being born. He says that this is further reinforced by the fact that states legalizing abortion earlier saw their crime rates drop earlier as well, and in the same time frame.

Now, how could Gladwell so enthusiastically praise Freco when it appeared to contradict his precious Broken Windows Theory?

For his answer, read his blog.

I still think Levitt's theory is more interesting/effective when explaining the drop in crime. But maybe it's because Gladwell looks like a fucking loser.

You Stole My 'Booyah'. Prepare to Die.

I hate Stuart Scott and his evil discolored eye. I really can't stand the guy. However, I have never ever thought that stalking and/or threatening him would do me much good. I just hope that natural disaster or scandal befalls him so I don't have to endure more "street" Sportscenter episodes. Can't we just pretend for a second that some people don't speak jive when they're talking about sports?

But I digress.

The point is that, according to Scott's Shots, some wacko named Evan Chaggaris threatened various ESPN personalities over several months in 2004 and 2005. His explanation for his behavior follows:

The defendant stated that the reason he was angry with ESPN was because he is a telemarketer and part of his sales pitch dealt with sports issues. The defendant believed that ESPN had his work phone tapped and that ESPN was stealing his sales pitch that he would give to potential clients.

I can see how he might think that. I've complained to priests that God steals all my best ideas. You remember that solar eclipse a couple years ago? Well, I thought of that in 1989.

However, I will admit that Chaggaris' response was a bit over the top. He sent over two dozen letters and left "at least six" voice messages, most of them violent and obscene. Here's a few examples:

“Tell [Sportscaster A] That I’ll Be Up There To Take His A** Out - That’s My Resolution For 2005 . . . I Will Kill This Cockroach, Count On It - And Wait There Until The Job Is Done . . . Trust Me, He’s Going Down.”

“I’ll Move Up To Bristol Or Surrounding Areas [and] Hunt [Sportscaster A] Down Like An Animal And Make It My Goal To Put Him Out, So He’ll Never Appear On Your Show Again.”

“Fire [Sportscaster A] Or I Swear On My Late Mother And Father’s Lives, I’m Gonna Kill This Son Of A Bitch.”

Then it really gets weird:

• “[Sportscaster A] is Going To Get Put In The Hospital, Anyway. Every Day That Heb Goes On [the air is] Another Time That I Ratchet Up The Courage To Beat The Hell Out Of Him” . . . “I’m Going to Put His A** Out Plan and Simple So He Never Works Again, Plain and Simple.”
• “If I See [Sportscaster A] Again, Hitler Kills The Jews, I’ll Pull A Me[in] Kampf, And Take Out This Motherf***er! This A**hole Wants To Mess Around, I’ll Kill [Sportscaster A]!”

Didn't see that Hitler part coming, did you?

Sometimes there's something satisfying about the insane. Or perhaps 'comforting' is the better word. I'm comforted by knowing that I can recognize crazy when I see it, and I think that helps me avoid it myself.

Also, Scott's Shots points out that this may not be the best time for ESPN's new marketing campaign for ESPN Mobile. In case you haven't seen them, they feature an overzealous ESPN stalker hanging around in the lots waiting to accost show anchors.

Despite the pall of Chaggaris hanging over them, I like the ads. Crazy is funny. Get over it.

Casserly is Bushwacked

Charley Casserly, GM of the Houston Texans, has resigned. If you don't remember, he's the poor bastard who had to go on TV and explain why he wanted to doom his team to another decade of squalor (i.e. drafting Van Helsing fan Super Mario Williams first overall instead of Reginald Sawyer Bush or hometown hero Vincent Youngblood).

He says he's leaving in order to pursue the position of Vice President of Football Operations. Obviously, there's more to it than that. It sounds to me like he was forced out by either Gary Kubiak's uselessness or by his own mismanagement of the Draft. Regardless, it's odd timing.

In the end, it was probably the right decision, no matter who made it: get Chuck the fuck out of Dodge well before the season starts.

What's sad is that we're all going to miss the controlled riots in Reliant Stadium on opening day. We won't be able to watch in horror as the mobs slowly penetrate the defenses of the owner's box and proceed to kill and maim Casserly, towing his dismembered torso around the field behind a golden chariot steered by Mayor Bill White.

Face Shield

I've broken three pairs of RayBans now, and I've lost God knows how many Oakleys and other retarded eyewear. I actually liked some of those sunglasses, but it's getting hard to keep up with my expensive habit of buying and then destroying them. Instead of going in for a rectal cleansing at Sunglass Hut, I decided to do the hipster/bum thing and look for a very cheap pair or two.

I went to vintage stores, drug stores, and even sunglasses stores, trying to see what I could find. Let me now remind you that my head is the size of a heavy medicine ball, and I have trouble wrapping most pairs around it. So not only am I an over-sized man in general, but I have to suffer with the pain of clerks at Sunglass Hut relegating me to the Andre the Giant rack which features lots of plywood and plexi-glass. "Why don't we give this welding mask a try?"

Anyway, I ended up with two pairs (or is it 'two pair', as in poker?): boring fake aviators with mirrored lenses that are still too small and a pair of enormous fake aviators with tortoise-colored plastic rims. Apparently I was meant to be a pilot.

Total cost: $19. Lack of satisfaction: priceless.

The search continues. I challenge anyone to recommend a good brand of sunglasses that fit big heads and aren't BlueBlockers.

The News from Micronesia

And now for the Woodpile's biweekly update on Micronesia, the world's friendliest speck of dirt in the big puddle we call the Pacific Ocean.

According to the Pacific Daily News (which barely lost the 2005 Vague Award for News Daily to the Southern Hemisphere Gazette) the upright and beloved Continental Micronesia has furloughed 50 workers due to the termination of an agreement with the evil Northwest Airlines of Guam.

The furloughs are expected to begin next week and will affect Continental employees who work at ticket counters and as baggage handlers, as well as gate and ramp personnel for Northwest flights.

I think this is a fantastic idea. I can print my own ticket, handle my own baggage, and probably figure out the gate and ramp situation myself. It's a ramp. It's probably the simplest machine in the world. Step one: find flat surface. Step two: tilt it. Done. It doesn't even approach the complexity of stairs.

One of the reasons behind all of this is that jet fuel prices are through the roof, coming in at $85 a barrel. However

Higher fuel costs have not threatened jobs at Continental, which provides $90 million in annual payroll to its 1,450 Guam employees, Wally Dias, staff vice president for sales and promotions for Continental, said.

Again with Guam. Who cares about Guam? Fascists. We're talking Micronesia, here. 50 people have been furloughed. What are they supposed to do?

Actually, now that I think of it, a furlough in Micronesia sounds suspiciously like an unpaid vacation.

Amsack

This weekend I'm traveling up to Princeton, NJ, for a black tie event at my old eating club. By the way, I'm 24 years old.

Anyway, as I can't afford a car and Greyhound doesn't offer a reasonable route from Washington to the Trenton area, I decided to take the luxurious option of rail travel on Amtrak. Little did I know how much this 2-and-a-half-hour-each-way-luxury would cost me: over $130. And if I didn't happen to keep the same schedule as a meth addict thus allowing me to take the "super low" web fares, it would probably have cost me over $190.

When did it become so goddamn expensive to get on a train? They're the same trains. They're the same tracks. They're the same surly asshole ticket takers.

Honestly, when I saw the price, I started thinking about buying a car. Maybe an SUV. Something huge with big bull bars on the front so that when I drive into the glass lobby of Amtrak headquarters and start spraying the hallways with buckshot and pipe bombs, they'll really know I mean business.

And maybe they'll spare me a rail pass or two. Signed in blood.

Number 5

Orders of Reggie Bush jerseys have not been shipped as it is still unclear what number the Saints' first round draft choice will wear (on the product page on Reebok's site the jersey bears number 1.... ugh). NFL Bush has petitioned the NFL's competition committee to ask that he be able to wear the number 5, the number he wore at USC last year. At this time, only quarterbacks and kickers can wear that number. As of now, these are the numbers and corresponding positions for NFL play:

1-9 Quarterbacks and Kickers
10-19 Quarterbacks, Receivers, and Kickers
20-49 Running Backs and Defensive Backs
50-59 Centers and Linebackers
60-79 Defensive Linemen and Offensive Linemen
80-89 Receivers and Tight Ends
90-99 Defensive Linemen and Linebackers

These recently changed in 2004 when receivers were given the option of choosing numbers in the 10-19 range. Keyshawn Johnson was allowed to do it in 1996 because the Jets roster had more than 10 receivers (this precedent won't help Bush, as I'm fairly certain that the Saints don't have 30 running backs on the roster). Now 30 receivers wear numbers in the teens: Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams, and Plaxico Burress among them.

The NFL maintains that the numbering system makes it easier for officials, and I seriously doubt that they'll bend just so the Saints' darling can wear his favorite number. It would set a poor precedent.

Now, the Saints don't have any availabilities in the 20s, so Bush would be forced to wear 30-49, assuming that the rule isn't changed. Bush should avoid Sayers' 40, Payton's 34, and definitely should stay away from Shaun Alexander's awful 37.

Here's my idea:

the word "Five"


Okay, that was retarded. But if you want me to throw out a number, how about 33. Yeah, I know it's not that cool, but it's all we've got.

Or the NFL can just give him 5 because he's black Jesus and goddamnit he deserves it.

Tribute to Young Chuck Norris

Young Chuck Norris.

Mystery Hole

No, I'm not referring to the ever elusive 8th orifice. I'm referring to the Mystery Hole in West Virginia.

In planning a rafting trip on the New River in West Virginia on Memorial Day weekend, I asked a friend (who happened to be a Mountaineer and a New River veteran) if he had any suggestions. On top of a couple of restaurants (one of which was called "Tudor's Biscuit World"!), he said that the 15-20 minute ride out to the Mystery Hole was well worth it. He said that I'd be "flabbergasted".

Anyway, after reading the Mystery Hole's website, I don't know if I'm ready for the terror that lies just a short drive out of Fayetteville.

Roadsideamerica.com couldn't even give the particulars:

It is difficult to describe what goes on within The Mystery Hole, since it is so mysterious that we are forbidden to reveal it. We can tell you (since it's in the brochure) that you will see a ball roll uphill and a person sitting in a chair somehow balanced on a strip of wood on a wall. Those who have visited other "Mystery" attractions can guess at some of the other freaky hoo-ha that goes on here -- and staging it in a sealed-in underground "hole" is a unique touch that improves its effect. The "Miss Mystery Spot," and "Miss New River Gorgeous" gags are also enjoyable -- but that's all that we can say.

At this point, I'm thinking that it's something that a bunch of hillbillies cooked up after they ingested psylocibin-crusted pig shit. Or perhaps it was the result of a bet to see how many yankees they could get to pay to see a hole in the ground.

Whatever it is, it's bound to be stupid. I will report back.

Fuckin' hillbillies.

Flux Capacitor on eBay

I've always wanted to go back in time to when I used to ride a skateboard to high school while being towed by a pick-up truck. With Kenny Loggins in the background.

Those were the days.

Honestly, I never thought that it would happen. However, I'm beginning to think there's a chance. Someone is selling a home-made flux capacitor on eBay. I don't have a DeLorean, but I figure that's the easy part of the time machine to find.

Experience the Devil Rays

Deadspin links to this hilarious video which documents a night at Tropicana Field in Tampa, FL. Great stuff.

Wolfensohn Quits

I don't mean to be so serious on a Friday morning, but I feel obliged to point out an article in TIME Magazine by Tony Karon. It's called "Is the Hard Line Against Hamas Working?", and it reports on the events surrounding the resignation of UN-appointed economic advisor to the Palestinan Authority James Wolfensohn (you might remember that Mr. Wolfensohn was World Bank Chief before Wolfowitz).

Wolfensohn's reason for resigning:

He said the current U.S.-Israeli financial blockade of the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority looks set to destroy the administrative institutions on which a two-state solution would be based, and negate 12 years and billions of dollars of investment by the international community in establishing the infrastructure of Palestinian self-rule.

...

Israeli papers report that Wolfensohn's decision also came in response to the U.S. — at the behest of Israeli officials — blocking a plan by Britain, the E.U. and the Arab League to have salaries of PA employees paid directly into their bank accounts, bypassing the Hamas administration. U.S. Treasury officials have warned that any banks processing such transactions would face sanctions from Washington, and none dared risk being shut out of the international finance system. That blocked a plan by Middle Eastern governments such as Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to provide the tens of millions of dollars needed to pay the salaries on which close to half of Palestinian households depend.

The US is making damn sure that a two-state solution won't happen any time soon.

US government policy is to starve Palestinians because of their majority choice in a democratic election. On the other hand, we're letting Israel basically do whatever it wants, watching them take advantage of the situation to redraw their borders illegally and unilaterally.

If anyone thinks that this is a reasonable (or even morally upright) stance, I'd like to hear it. Outrageous.

Be Kind, Rewind

According to Scott Weinberg of Rotten Tomatoes, Michel Gondry (director of Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) and Jack Black will be teaming up for a new film called "Be Kind, Rewind".

Here's the premise:

In the film, Black plays Jerry, a man whose headaches lead him to believe his brain is melting. His brain is magnetized, leading to the unintentional destruction of movies in his friend's store. In order to keep the store's one loyal customer, an elderly lady with signs of dementia, the pair re-creates a long line of films including "The Lion King," "Rush Hour," "Back to the Future" and "Robocop."

Ladies and gentlemen, I feel safe to say that Jack Black is the Messiah. Jews, pack it in. It's over. He's here to save us all.

To the Supermax!

The Zacharias Moussaoui trial is finally over, and we no longer have to hear the ravings of this crazy bastard. Personally, I think his participation in 9/11 is overblown, if not completely within Moussaoui's own stunted brain. This trial did virtually nothing to satisfy me in terms of retribution for the attacks.

However, one interesting nugget it did reveal is that the highest security prisons in the US are called "Supermax Prisons". Moussaoui will spend his last days at Florence, Colorado's United States Penitentiary Administrative Maximum Facility (ADX), the "Alcatraz of the Rockies", pictured at right.

ADX Florence was built after an unfortunate incident in 1983 at the previous supermax facility in Marion, IL, in which two prison guards were murdered by inmates. Marion was no longer able to handle the kind of total lockdown that prison officials deemed necessary to safely house the most dangerous motherfuckers in America (complete isolation for 23 hours a day, with no mixing of prisoners for dining, exercise, or religious services). Here's what resulted:

Most cells' furniture is made almost entirely out of poured concrete, including a desk, stool, and bed covered by a thin mattress. Each chamber contains a toilet that shuts off if plugged, a shower that runs on a timer to prevent flooding, and a sink missing a potentially dangerous tap. Rooms may also be fitted with polished steel mirrors bolted to the wall, an electric light, a 13-inch black and white television, and a cigarette lighter. Windows in rooms are small, set high up in the wall, and point towards the sky, confusing the prisoner as to his specific location within the complex.

The prison as a whole contains countless motion detectors and cameras, 1,400 remote-controlled steel doors, and 12 foot high razor wire fences. Laser beams, pressure pads, and attack dogs guard the area between the prison walls and razor wire. The facility is built into the side of a mountain, and visitors and prisoners enter through the same heavily-guarded tunnel.

Check out the Bureau of Prison's ADX homepage here.

Inmates of ADX include Eric Rudolph, Terry Nichols, Ted Kaczynski, Robert Hanssen, Ramzi Yousef, and Omar Abdel-Rahman.

Kids, stay in school and keep off the streets!

Mexico sucks again

Vicente Fox has decided not to sign the drug legalization bill into law after all, the AP reports.

I'm absolutely sure that the US pressured him on this. San Diego Mayor Jerry Sanders is quoted in the article as saying:

I'm glad that he's listened to the many voices opposing the bill and made changes that will make good enforcement and not legalize drugs.

What voices? Your voice, San Diego mayor? The US embassy, perhaps?

Fox said that he wanted to make it "clear" that possession and consumption of drugs is illegal in Mexico. That's a pretty solid reason to veto this bill, considering that the bill seeks to virtually legalize possession and consumption of drugs for personal use.

Oh well. Snorting meth in the bathroom at the local Taco Bell will have to do for now.

SUPA FUPA

So I came across this image in a Reuters story about the world's fattest man: Manuel Uribe of Monterrey. The article has some truly priceless quotes about this sad situation/fat fuck:

"I can't walk. I'm can't leave my bed," the 40-year-old Uribe, who weighs the same as five baby elephants, said in a recent telephone interview.

Uribe will be flying to Rome for an intestinal bypass operation, and NATO has mobilized multiple AC-130 gunships to assist in the transfer.

If you were interested in Uribe's social life, keep reading:

His wife, horrified by his increasing size, feared the worst and abandoned him more than a decade ago.

"She left me because she must have thought I was dying," Uribe said.

I would submit that it's probably because she thought you were grotesquely obese. But that's just me.

Finally, I've been asked to identify that flap of flesh that appears to be spilling out from under Mr. Uribe's shirt. Some have even asked me if it's his testicles. I'm no doctor, but I doubt that eating a lot makes your balls grow to the size of silverback gorillas. Although that would be useful knowledge. No, I'd say that what we are in fact looking at is the male version of a FUPA, or "Fat Upper Pussy Area". For the FUPA amateurs out there, please read more here.

Mexico: Enjoy Smack. Legally.

The LA Times reports that Mexican President Vicente Fox will sign a bill that will result in the legalization of every drug sold by the Mexican cartels.

The list of drugs?

Cocaine
Heroin
LSD
Marijuana
PCP
Opium
Synthetic opiates
Mescaline
Peyote
Psilocybin mushrooms
Amphetamines
Methamphetamines

And where do you think I am planning my next vacation?

As a libertarian, I think this is an incredibly smart move. Drug violence will be virtually eliminated, and I seriously doubt that there will be a great increase in drug use. Non-criminal regulation will certainly work better than the ridiculously harsh penalties we have in the US.

On the other hand, those in the US advocating stronger borders are going to have a goddamn field day with this, saying that we are now sharing a border with what amounts to Amsterdam on steroids. The meth labs in Arkansas will now be shut down because meth factories in Guadalajara will be producing it in commercial bulk for much lower prices.

Read the entire LA Times piece here.